Saturday, 21 February 2015
Mathematical model vs intutive or subjective model in guessing future or forcaating
Forcasting is a method of assessing the future events what likely to happen, based on different model. To assess the nearly future event forcasting is important. It is important to know about the next year of product demand what should be. On the basis of occurs that likly to happen in near future it is possible to take an initiative action by the manager. Producer can decide how production will be to satisfy the future demand of the priduct if he can assess the future events by an effective forecasting method.
Different mathematical equation easily can give a clear picture of the future event, if the other factor is ignored.
We know about that summation of two and three will be result into five in future.
Any mathematical model is such kinds of model that follows steadily mathematical formula.
In different scientific method the mathematical formula is the most trusted method of obtaining result. But in in different case mathematical formula can not show the exact result.
In intutive model of forecasting the peoples are concerned with the decision about future event likely to happen on the basis of their opiniop. Intutive model is also called the subjective model.
Intutive model in some of the case better than mathematical model. Though, the intutive or subjective model is concerned with the knowledge and experiance of individuals.
Experiances and experts can give a good assessment of future that likely to happen is more better than any mathematical method. Because when mathematics ignores other factors then experts considers other factors that can impacts on the future events.